By Eastern Europe, we specifically mean the premier league of the following nations: Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria and Ukraine. In terms of their football culture, these nations are anyway known less for their finesse than for their robust style of play and combative players. Historically, there have always been very few goals scored in Russia and Co and the betting companies know this too, setting lower betting odds especially there. The most frequent results, especially in Russia, are the following: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1. In fact, risky Under 1.5 bets can often be placed there at sometimes great odds. But also in Ukraine, Belarus and Bulgaria, goals are usually stingy. The result is low betting odds, but a great chance of scoring.
The Arab region was also largely uncharted territory for the betting community. Last season, however, after a test phase, bets from the following leagues were recommended: Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. While the Egyptian league can also be followed to some extent via the Bet365 live portal, we had to rely heavily on numbers and dates for the other leagues. In Egypt, teams predominantly play either a 4-5-1 or a 5-4-1 system. This leads to extremely defensive games and few goals. Even though there were also rather low odds for the Under 2.5, the yield last year was worth seeing. In the other Arab leagues, there were large discrepancies in performance, which led to very lopsided betting odds and sometimes high lines on the Under bets. In Qatar or Kuwait, we were often able to recommend lucrative Under 3.5 or Under 4.5 bets, for which there are also many possible outcomes. In any case, in the Arab region bookmakers have the least information and thus the betting odds are “least accurate”. This can be used to one’s advantage with good research.
It is hard to believe, but especially the nations Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile and especially Brazil provided strong opportunities for under bets in the last months. Yet the South Americans are considered technically proficient and offensive artists. This public fallacy is due to superstars like Messi, Neymar and co. In fact, the majority of Brazilian and Argentinean players are not necessarily technically gifted, but very combative. Especially the teams in the midfield of both leagues are strongly influenced by defensive coaches. The bookmakers know this and so there are usually not exactly strikingly high betting odds for under bets in these leagues either. However, the fact that many of the matches played by defensively strong teams are very low-scoring opens up the opportunity for sustainable profits. In Argentina, for example, about 70% of the matches end with two or fewer goals! If you evaluate the data, you are bound to find good betting odds with a view to the betting model presented.
Italy (Serie B and Lega Pro/Serie C)
What would a betting model with few goals conceded be without Italian participation? At least the first Italian division cannot (any longer) be true to the defensive style. While Serie A is now indeed a decidedly goal-heavy league, Serie B and the third Italian division in particular shine with the reverential defensive style of years gone by. These two leagues are very underloaded and that is why there were also very good betting opportunities in these divisions last season. It is also noticeable that there are many draws in these leagues – especially towards the end of the season. Matches often end 0-0 or 1-1, which many betting experts associate with “collusion” or at least with very targeted “gambling on the result”. The bookmakers sometimes react to this on the market, but not always! So, at least in these divisions, catenaccio ensures low-scoring encounters and thus good betting potential.